An O’Dea vs. Hanks matchup showcases stark contrasts. O’Dea is a political newcomer and has the ability to self-fund the race. He also has more of an ability to win crossover votes of disaffected independents and even perhaps moderate Democrats if he can run a convincing campaign. While President Biden won Colorado by 13.5 points two years ago and Republican Sen. Cory Gardner was ousted, GOP sources in the state believe the backlash wasn’t necessarily intended for Republicans as much as it was anti-Trump sentiment. Without the former president on the ballot, they have more optimism now. And GOP sources note that both Biden and Trump’s favorability is roughly the same in the state: underwater.
We moved this race to Likely Democrat back in February, but as we noted at the time, if it’s Hanks who emerges with the nomination, what hope Republicans had here would dissipate and we’d shift our rating back to safe Democrat. That’s even more consequential now given it’s only a two-person race. “Colorado could be competitive if O’Dea is the nominee,” one veteran Colorado Republican strategist told us. “Or if it’s Hanks, the race will be off the [competitive] charts.”
In fact, one of the reasons for Republican optimism in targeting Bennet is that he’s never won a majority of the vote; in 2016, he won re-election by 6 points, but still only took a plurality (49.97%) of the vote.
If Hanks is the nominee though, it could be deja vu from 12 years ago. That’s certainly the outcome Democrats are, of course, hoping for. It’s worth watching, now that the ballot is set, if national Republicans step in to try and stop Hanks — and could that provoke Trump to wade into the race and make yet another counterproductive endorsement in a blue state?
This race is still one to keep on the radar, and we’re keeping it in the Likely Democrat column for now. Who emerges with the Republican nomination on June 28 will have a huge bearing on this race’s competitiveness going forward.
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