If you’re looking for a place to measure the size of a GOP wave or a state where a Supreme Court decision on abortion could make an impact, look at Colorado.
The agreed-upon Senate battlefield consists of seven or eight states, half held by Democrats and half held by Republicans.
But President Joe Biden’s continued woes, including persistent inflation, a middling approval rating, and an inability to pass major legislation through Congress, have Republicans looking to press their advantage beyond the consensus four pickup opportunities of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.
GOP eyes inevitability drift to Colorado, a state where not too long ago Republicans won regularly and in 2014 pulled off one of the biggest wins of that cycle. It is also the next-narrowest Biden victory of any Democratic-held seat up for election in 2022, after New Hampshire.
But everything has to go right for Republicans to put the Centennial State in play. The party still has a primary to work through that could produce a flawed nominee. And a bombshell Supreme Court decision on abortion later this year could also upend this race.
The Lay of the Land
Once a Republican-leaning swing state, Colorado has trended steadily toward Democrats over the past 15 years.
In 2020, Biden carried the state by 13 points, 55-42 percent, while former Gov. John Hickenlooper ousted GOP Sen. Cory Gardner by 10 points, 55-45 percent. Gardner, who was first elected in 2014 by 2 points, 48-46 percent, by defeating an incumbent, was the last Republican to hold statewide political office.
In 2018, Democratic Rep. Jared Polis led a clean sweep of the state’s constitutional offices, winning his race 53-43 percent as Democrats held the governor’s mansion and picked up three row offices.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton edged out President Donald Trump, 48-43 percent, a similar margin to President Barack Obama’s 52-46 percent win over Mitt Romney in 2012. The last GOP presidential nominee to carry Colorado was George W. Bush in 2004.
The Centennial State is one of the fastest-growing in the nation, with a population that increased by nearly 15 percent from 2010 to 2020 according to the Census Bureau. The state is also increasingly diverse: just 65 percent of the state is non-Hispanic White, with 22 percent Hispanic, 6 percent Black, and 4 percent Asian and 4 percent Native American.
The Republican Challengers
Joe O’Dea, 60, is a first-time candidate who owns a municipal construction company and event spaces in Denver.
Born and raised in Denver by his adopted parents, O’Dea left Colorado State University without a degree in the 1980s to work as a carpenter, eventually founding his own business. Today, O’Dea’s company contracts with municipalities to build roads and bridges and employs several hundred people.
O’Dea is the rare Republican candidate for Senate that acknowledges Biden’s legitimate victory in 2020. In most other states, even ones Biden carried handily such as Washington state, GOP contenders have either shied away from acknowledging Biden’s victory or outright endorsed Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of fraud.
O’Dea’s campaign team includes general consultant/former Colorado state Senate minority leader Josh Penry of 76 Group, media consultant Liesl Hickey of Ascent Media, and pollster Nicole McCleskey of Public Opinion Strategies.
The Republican Primary
On paper, O’Dea has clear advantages heading into the June 28 primary.
Financially, he laps Hanks by an order of magnitude. Politically, as a first-time candidate he lacks a voting record to nitpick. Personally, he carries none of the baggage Hanks does, and has a compelling bio as a self-made millionaire who built a business from the ground up.
O’Dea begins with a massive financial edge. He reported $609,000 in the bank on March 31. He is also personally wealthy and already gave his campaign $632,000 through the first three months of the year.
Hanks, by comparison, reported just $16,000 in the bank on March 31 after raising just $11,000 in the first three months of the year. The gap between them is far greater than the 3-to-1 advantage Norton had over Buck in the 2010 GOP primary that led to an upset.
Unless Hanks rapidly scales up, that level of fundraising will make it impossible to run a traditional statewide campaign, precluding any broadcast TV or cable advertising and all but the most minimal digital advertising.
Meanwhile, O’Dea has already run several ads statewide, totalling nearly $300,000, including a Spanish-language radio ad narrated by his wife, who is of Mexican descent. O’Dea is also advertising on Facebook.
But GOP sources say Hanks should not be counted out, because of thepolitical leanings of the GOP electorate and the intense and continued focus of Republican activists on the 2020 election.
While the GOP assembly where Hanks and other election deniers dominated is not representative of the broader electorate, Colorado Republicans say, it can reflect the attitudes of the party’s most fervent supporters, and indicates a level of grassroots strength on Hanks’ part relative to other, better funded candidates.
Both Buck in 2010 and Glenn in 2016 show that GOP primary voters are willing to go with a more conservative, firebrand candidate over the potentially safer establishment option. O’Dea will try to leverage that history in his own way, appealing to voters’ desire to win elections, something a Colorado Republican hasn’t done since 2014.
How well O’Dea can steer clear of discussing the 2020 election, and instead focus his resources on issues such as inflation, could determine how well he can do in June.
One thing that may help O’Dea is how Colorado’s election system deals with unaffiliated voters. The election itself will be entirely vote-by- mail. Voters who are not registered with a political party will receive both a Democratic and a Republican ballot in the mail, and can choose which to fill out and send back (they cannot vote in both). With no competitive statewide Democratic primaries, and only a handful of competitive congressional primaries, a greater number of unaffiliated voters may choose to vote in the GOP contest, and O’Dea’s campaign sees those voters as far more likely to go for him than Hanks. O’Dea will also have the resources to target those voters specifically, while Hanks likely will not.
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