One of the bigger storylines from Tuesday’s primary was the extent to which Democrats meddled in GOP statewide primaries, with the goal of helping to elect the weaker (and usually more Trump-oriented) candidate.
As Jessica Taylor writes, their months-long strategy worked out in the Illinois governor race, where the DGA and incumbent Gov. J.B. Pritzker combined to spend more than $35 million to boost conservative downstate Sen. Darren Bailey over the more moderate Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin. Even though billionaire hedge fund executive Ken Griffin put $50 million behind Irvin, Bailey notched a comfortable win – with Irvin coming in third place, 42 points behind the GOP winner. Bailey’s victory was another reminder of how the GOP base in the state – once centered in the prosperous suburbs around Chicago – has migrated to the more rural downstate.
But, Democratic efforts to secure more controversial candidates backfired in both the Senate and governor primaries in Colorado. Construction company CEO Joe O’Dea advanced to face Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in a race we currently rate as Likely Democrat, but if O’Dea’s conspiracy theorist challenger had won, it would have taken a race Republicans hope to make competitive off the table. In a “normal” year, Colorado’s blue enough for a statewide Democrat to feel safe. But, O’Dea’s more moderate profile, combined with a brutal national political environment, makes this Senate race one to keep a close eye on. One GOP strategist involved in the race noted to us last night that, “the Dems ran $10M [of advertising] and told everyone how Joe’s a moderate. We rocked unaffiliateds – the same voters they’ll need in November just voted for our guy.”
In the gubernatorial primary, University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganal also prevailed over a far-right challenger, but she still faces an uphill climb against Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.
On the House side, Tuesday was a good primary night for the MAGA/Freedom Caucus wing of the Republican party in safe red seats, writes David Wasserman, as Trump-endorsed GOP Rep. Mary Miller defeated moderate GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in Illinois’s 15th CD and GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert (CO-03) throttled her center-right primary opponent.
But it was also a decent night for GOP prospects in swing seats, as state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer defeated a far-right opponent in Colorado’s swingy new 8th CD and philanthropist Regan Deering led the GOP primary in Downstate Illinois’s 13th CD. The new 8th CD in the sprawling suburbs north of Denver, has a 35 percent Hispanic population that would have voted Trump +2 in 2016 but Biden +5 in 2020. It is currently rated as a Toss-Up. Democratic legislators redrew the downstate IL-13 seat from Trump +3 to Biden +11 by adding the city of East St. Louis and removing heavily GOP counties. It’s currently rated as Lean Democrat.
Two other incumbents lost on Tuesday, one in a member vs. member contest and one in a run-off. Democratic Rep. Marie Newman (IL-03) and GOP Rep. Steven Palazzo (MS-04) both went down to defeat on Tuesday amid ethics investigations. Newman, who apparently bribed a 2020 primary opponent to stay out of her race, lost badly to fellow Democratic Rep. Sean Casten (IL-06). And Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell ousted Palazzo, under investigation for allegedly funneling campaign funds to businesses he owns, by seven points.
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