Today, the Cook Political Report moved the U.S. Senate race in Iowa away from Sen. Chuck Grassley, shifting it from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Cook Political Report, one of the most respected election handicappers, wrote:
“Selzer’s Iowa Poll with the Des Moines Register/Mediacom has long been the gold standard in the state, conducted by venerated pollster J. Ann Selzer. So we took note when her numbers back in July put this at an 8-point race between seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley against retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken.”
“…it’s not the horse race numbers we are paying as much attention to as we are the underlying metrics. Grassley’s approval rating is now underwater for the first time in the Iowa Poll’s history, with 44% approve/48% disapprove.”
“That was coupled with warning signs for Grassley in the [July] poll as two-thirds of voters said they think it’s time for someone new to represent Iowa.”
“On air, Grassley has gone negative against Franken — another sign they are taking the challenge seriously…Franken outraised Grassley again this cycle, with $3.6 million compared to the veteran Republican’s $2 million…”
“…given both Franken’s fundraising and the Selzer poll, … we don’t think it belongs in our safest Republican column…”
“Therefore, we are shifting our rating from Solid to Likely Republican…we still see Grassley as the clear favorite to win re-election, but it could be his closest race ever since he was first elected in 1980 by 8 points.”
“…it could be another contest to watch on election night, even if the trajectory is going against the conventional wisdom of other state trends.”
In response to the new rating, Franken for Iowa communications director C.J. Petersen made the following statement:
“Our campaign has all the momentum as the Iowa Senate race enters the crucial final three weeks — and now the pundits in Washington are taking notice. Admiral Michael Franken’s strong campaign is outcampaigning and outraising Senator Grassley, and Iowans are fired up to send principled, new leadership to Washington.”
Original source can be found here
