New Jersey’s independent redistricting commission gave Rep. Andy Kim a safe district to run in for re-election in this fall.
Or so it seemed.
But the national political climate, combined with strong fundraising from one of Kim’s Republican opponents, led the Cook Political Report to change its rating on the race Wednesday to “likely Democratic” from “safe Democratic.”
The new rating means that while Kim, D-3rd Dist., still was a strong favorite to be re-elected in November, he could find himself in a competitive race later this year, especially since the president’s party usually loses seats in a midterm election and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are in negative territory.
David Wasserman, who tracks House races for Cook, took note of yacht company co-founder Bob Healey’s strong fundraising. Healey raised $772,693, lent his campaign $260,000 and had $755,931 to spend entering April.
But since Kim has banked $3.7 million and the redrawn district has a strong Democratic lean, “this seat would only come into play in a truly terrible scenario for Democrats,” Wasserman said.
Kim rode the 2018 blue wave to oust GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur, who played a major role in passing the Republican tax law that capped the federal deduction for state and local taxes, a major concern in a state with the nation’s highest property taxes.
“Andy Kim is going to meet the consequences of his actions this November when New Jerseyans fire him for sticking them with Democrats’ failed agenda,” said Samantha Bullock, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Kim campaign spokesman Forrest Rilling declined to comment.
Healey, who was added to the House Republican political arm’s list of potentially strong GOP challengers in February, first needs to get through a primary election that also includes Ian Smith, a New Jersey gym owner who went to Washington in January 2021 to protest President Joe Biden’s victory and last month was charged with drunken driving, and Nicholas Ferrara, a lawyer and Realtor.
Cook also has rated the 5th District, currently represented by Democrat Josh Gottheimer, as likely Democratic. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in January made Gottheimer eligible for extra help under a program for incumbents expected to be in tight races.
He is sitting on more than $13 million while four Republicans vie for their party’s nod in the June 7 primary: former investment banker Frank Pallotta, who lost to Gottheimer in 2020 and had $83,215 in the bank; businessman Fred Schneiderman, with $147,331, thanks in part to a $150,000 personal loan; Marine Corps veteran Nick De Gregorio, with $454,466; and Sab Skenderi, who did not report raising any money. De Gregorio also is on the NRCC’s list of potentially strong challengers.
And the Washington-based Cook Report made former state Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean Jr. a slight favorite to oust two-term Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in the 7th District. Kean had $1.5 million to spend entering April, less than half of Malinowski’s $3.4 million.
Kean faces six primary opponents: state Assemblyman Eric Peterson, R-Hunterdon, who refused to follow the Statehouse’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate in December; pastor Phil Rizzo; businessman John Isemann; builder Kevin Dorlon; transportation and logistics account executive Sterling Schwab and Fredon Township Mayor John Flora.
Original source can be found here.
